As we near a decade since the attacks on September 11th it is important for the Intelligence Community to take a look back and reassess. Three issues that I see as continuous problems that confront the US Intelligence Community are the depleted human intelligence assets, officials and organizations within the intelligence community not being held accountable for failures, and a need for change as noted in the 9/11 Commission Report. Taking note of the “2025 Global Trends Final Report” we can see how the US Intelligence Community will be effected if these issues are not addressed. It is imperative that the IC continue to adapt and display its usefulness, as well as cost effectiveness. According to SunTzu “raising a host of a hundred thousand men and marching them great distances entails heavy loss on the people and a drain on the resources of the State”, in regards to how cost effective it is to employ human intelligence agents versus deploying troops.[1]
Depleted human intelligence assets (HUMINT) are something I am familiar with. During the Clinton administration funding for HUMINT assets was cut back to the point that military Special Forces and intelligence units played a major part in gathering information and acting as HUMINT assets. As noted in the US Intelligence Community “a number of observers and commissions have suggested that both the attacks of 9/11 and the intelligence failure with regard to Iraqi WMDs are, to a significant degree, attributable to a lack of human intelligence” as evidence of the issue of depleted HUMINT.[2] Continuing to utilize HUMINT whether international, host nation, or homegrown to conduct and analyze intelligence and counterintelligence operations is a must. These human assets fill the gaps that other intelligence methods such as COMINT and SIGINT cannot fill, and answers the questions that items such as satellite imagery cannot answer.
Responsibility for failure is a reoccurring issue in the IC, however restructuring and removal from office has taken place after past failures within the IC. Richelson points out “the danger of ignoring the key role that individuals play in organizational success or failure can have unfortunate consequences. Individuals not held responsible for significant failures may repeat them. The message conveyed by allowing those failures to go unpunished is that there is no penalty for failure, and that such individuals will not be replaced by people of greater competence, courage, and integrity”, in regards to how responsibility for failure is a major issue with in the IC.[3]
Post 9/11 attacks, a need for change within the IC became apparent. Too many government organizations competing for tight funding of operations and analysis within the IC ensured the entire picture of what was going to happen on September 11, 2001 was missed. Information sharing between agencies was not utilized and as a result the 9/11 Commission promoted the idea of liaisons between agencies tasked with intelligence gathering and processing in regards to the US’s threats. Restructuring and retooling was needed in order to try to prevent attacks such as these from happening again. As noted in the 9/11 Commission Report “the need to restructure the intelligence community grows out of six problems that have become apparent before and after 9/11: structural barriers to performing joint intelligence work,…lack of common standards and practices across the foreign-domestic divide,…divided management of national intelligence capabilities,…weak capacity to set priorities and move resources,…too many jobs (or tasks asked of the former DCI),…too complex and secret”.[4]
When referencing the Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World report you will find four possible global scenarios: “A World Without the West, October Surprise, BRICs’ Bust Up, and Politics is Not Always Local”.[5] There are a few underlying themes in this report and these scenarios that should concern the intelligence community. Future possible conflicts over a shortening supply of natural resources due to over population are the issues that reign across each of these scenarios. In order to combat these issues the IC will need to be utilized for clandestine monitoring of compliance with use and distribution of shortening supplies of natural resources as well as waste management and environmental impact due to over population. The US does not need to lean towards a “New World Order” as some conspiracy theorists suggest, the US IC can help maintain the stability of the position of the US as a super power independent from a global or collective effort to stabilize the global economy, international relations, and natural resource management.
As we, as a nation, draw closer to the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks we should put some faith in the intelligence community’s ability to adapt to the times and our government to provide sufficient oversight and transparency. We will also need our IC and government leaders to recognize that there is a depleted HUMINT supply, they need to be held responsible and hold themselves responsible for failures, and both groups must recognize the need for change and restructuring.
[1] SunTzu, The Art of War, ed. Dallas Galvin, trans. Lionel Giles, (New York: Barnes and Noble, 2003), 199.
[2] Jeffrey T. Richelson, The US Intelligence Community, 5th ed. (Westview: 2008), 529.
[3] Ibid. 529
[4] The 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on the Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, (Norton), 408.
[5] Global Trends Final Report 2025 http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf (accessed 05/23/11)
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