Webster Tarpley: The Next Decade 1/4

An amazing and in depth look at the global politico-economic scene. Fantastic insight and historical reference. Wow!

Webster Tarpley: The Next Decade 2/4

Webster Tarpley: The Next Decade 3/4

Webster Tarpley: The Next Decade 4/4

Specialized Training for Television and Film Actors

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Shotgun Ammunition: 'Rounds of Authority'

Great little video about the different types of shotgun ammo available and their effects.

Mujahedeen: Deception and its Impact

                It is evident that starting in 1979 and continuing through today the Mujahedeen have used deception to overcome and impact the US ability to make decisions based on ground truth. There was a large level of impact on the US Intelligence Community and the US Government. The success of this impact is measured by the level of mirror imaging that took place and the failure to realize the local views towards foreign control.

               
                Deception played a big part of the progression of the Mujahedeen. Through their US backed conflict with the former Soviet Union backed Peoples Republic of Afghanistan, the Mujahedeen readily accepted money, training, and resources that were crucial in their fight against the Russians. All while accepting this support the Mujahedeen had planned on turning on the US as noticed in the YouTube video Secrets of the CIA (new) - Part 4/6 by Mel Goodman and other high level analysts.[1] It is also evident that not only deception but self-deception was utilized by the Mujahedeen. In regards to self-deception, in Silent Warfare: Understanding the World of Intelligence the authors explain that “the false view of the situation one wishes an adversary to adopt must be determined by the action one wishes the adversary to take”.[2]

                

               The level of impact on the US was large. After the US left Afghanistan for the most part post Russian withdrawal, it can be argued that a large part of the Mujahedeen branched out to other organizations such as Al Qaida, the Taliban, and operated as Iraq war insurgents from Al Qaida spinoffs. As seen in our other YouTube supplemental video Secrets of the CIA (new) - Part 5/6, another analyst compares how the US assets devoted to analyzing intelligence about Al Qaida (and the Mujahedeen) started out with just a handful of analysts and is now large in scope and size of assets.[3] Another issue of concern regarding impact is the issue of blowback. Andy McNabb is an example of blowback stemming from the training of the Mujahedeen and Northern Alliance soldiers and how it has negatively affected the US and its interests. Again in the YouTube video Secrets of the CIA (new) - Part 4/6 you can see McNabb, a former British SAS operator, explains how he taught these soldiers how to make explosives, shoot down helicopters, and how to utilize improvised explosive devices or IEDs which were so effective in Iraq and still are today in Afghanistan against US and coalition forces.[4] This makes me wonder what our government would do to me if I started training Americans how to do all of that. 

               

               Mirror imaging, according to Shulsky and Schmitt, is defined as “the judging of unfamiliar situations on the basis of familiar ones”.[5] Mirror imaging on the part of US intelligence analysts and policy makers was a form of failure in regards to assessments about the Mujahedeen. The “we wouldn’t do that if we were them” attitude did not pan out in this instance. Also, the Afghan people’s views towards foreign control or presence were not taken into consideration resulting in blowback. A 2009 article in Survival details the “US and British failures to understand the extent of resistance in Afghanistan to anything that feels like foreign control, the 1979-89 war between the Soviet-backed Afghanistan government and its mujahedeen adversaries, and the power of non-state groups to rely on uses of force not controlled by any state” proving the importance of mirror imaging when it comes to intelligence assessment.[6]

 

                We can see that through deception the Mujahedeen and similar entities have exposed the US intelligence community of its failures. Mirror imaging was a catalyst to these types of organizations and their ability to affect the US. Blowback and a step up in resources devoted to the situation have brought to light the impact that the Mujahedeen and similar organizations have the US, the intelligence community, and its assets.  

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[1] Secrets of the CIA (new) - Part 4/6

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oh6UI5i0yCI&feature=related (9:00-9:40, 10:25-10:34 accessed 04/13/11)

[2] Abram N. Shulsky and Gary J. Schmitt, Silent Warfare: Understanding the World of Intelligence 3^rd ed. (Potomac, 2002), 121.

[3] Secrets of the CIA (new) - Part 5/6 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wo9hslrF8b8&feature=related (10:15-10:30 accessed 04/13/11)

[4] Secrets of the CIA (new) - Part 4/6 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oh6UI5i0yCI&feature=related (7:45-8:06 accessed 04/13/11)

[5] Abram N. Shulsky and Gary J. Schmitt, Silent Warfare: Understanding the World of Intelligence 3^rd ed. (Potomac, 2002), 67.

[6] Adam Roberts, “Doctrine and Reality in Afghanistan”, Survival, 51 (Feb/Mar, 2009) 1, abstract. http://web.ebscohost.com.ezproxy2.apus.edu/ehost/detail?vid=6&hid=119&sid=9b827dfb-d4ac-4510-9932-93840a98fda7%40sessionmgr112&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=tsh&AN=36449345

Failures in the Intelligence Community

Causes of Failure within the Intelligence Community

            In chapter 3 of our text we find the major causes of intelligence failure listed as subordination of intelligence policy, unavailability of information when and where needed, received opinion, and mirror imaging. Of these four causes of failure, even though all are important, I believe received opinion is the most important area in regards to intelligence failure.

            Looking at subordination of intelligence to policy you will find that this type of failure is caused by an analysis leaning towards what an individual analyst believes his/her superiors would want to hear. As noted in Silent Warfare Understanding the World of Intelligence subordination of intelligence to policy “is perhaps the most commonly discussed source of error or bias in intelligence analysis”.[1] This form of failure may be the most commonly discussed but I feel it is not the most important to address of all the types of intelligence failures. Historical examples of this may include analysts trying to appease leaders from authoritative dictatorships such as Hitler’s Germany and Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.

            Unavailability of information is the most interesting problem to me in regards to intelligence. According to Shulsky and Schmitt “this unavailability has various causes: for example, security regulations…,bureaucratic jealousness and power struggles, or simple lack of awareness in the office processing the data of another office’s information needs”.[2] Our text points out the attack on Pearl Harbor by the Japanese as an example of unavailability of information when and where needed. I also feel that the attacks on US soil on September 11^th 2001 show this country’s weakness when it comes to this sort of information sharing. The 9/11 Commission Report was drafted as a result of the breakdown of information sharing that allowed the attacks to happen and included recommendations on what steps to take to prevent that breakdown from possibly happening again.

            The most important cause of failure within the intelligence community in my opinion is received opinion, or “those opinions about a subject that are generally regarded without sufficient investigation, as true” according to Shulsky and Schmitt.[3] Our text uses the Iraq invasion of Kuwait as an example citing analysts whose opinions were that Iraq would not invade Kuwait despite imagery that showed troop build ups along the border of the two countries. In the supplemental reading for this week, the ICD 203 Analytic Standards document, details how to generate assumption (which is part of the process of analysis) without letting “conventional wisdom” create negative results. The document states “analytic products should identify indicators that would signal whether assumptions or judgments are more or less likely to be correct” as an answer to the possible problem of received opinion.[4]

            Mirror imaging is the last of our four causes of failure.  In my opinion this is the least important of the four and deals with the assumptions made on unfamiliar situations based on familiar situations. Basically the assumption is made based on what the entity making the assumption would do if they were in a similar situation. Our text cites the Yom Kippur War in 1973 in which “Israel’s intelligence services did not imagine that the Arabs would begin a war that they seemed sure to lose”.[5] 

            After researching the subject of causes of failure within the intelligence we find four major causes. These causes include subordination of intelligence to policy, unavailability of information when and where needed, received opinion, and mirror imaging. Although all of these factors are important, I feel that received opinion is the most mitigated by intelligence community standards and mirror imaging is the least mitigated.

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[1] Abram N. Shulsky and Gary J. Schmitt, Silent Warfare Understanding the World of Intelligence (Potomac, 2002), 64.

[2] Abram N. Shulsky and Gary J. Schmitt, Silent Warfare Understanding the World of Intelligence (Potomac, 2002), 65.

[3] Abram N. Shulsky and Gary J. Schmitt, Silent Warfare Understanding the World of Intelligence (Potomac, 2002), 65.

[4] Intelligence Community Directive Number 203 (June, 2007) http://www.dni.gov/electronic_reading_room/ICD_203.pdf

[5] Abram N. Shulsky and Gary J. Schmitt, Silent Warfare Understanding the World of Intelligence (Potomac, 2002), 67.

Gerald Celente on The Nutrimedical Report with Dr. Bill Deagle 07 Apr 2011

Gerald Celente talks the 3 G's: Gold, guns, and a getaway plan...

http://www.networkworld.com/community/blog/ridiculous-dhs-list-you-might-be-domestic-ter

Ridiculous DHS list: You might be a domestic terrorist if...

By Ms. Smith on Sun, 04/03/11 - 6:39pm.

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We've all heard the "You might be a Redneck If" jokes, but in this series "You might be a Domestic Terrorist If" you believe in civil liberties, or if you actually believe in your Constitutional rights. Sadly, this is not a joke. You might also be a terrorist if you have ever expressed concerns of Big Brother. Are you a Christian who has ever discussed the anti-Christ, the apocalypse, or even mentioned the book of Revelation? Guess what, according to DHS then you too qualify as a potential domestic terrorist.

An 18-year veteran in law enforcement warned to beware of Homeland Security training that is being pushed to local law enforcement. James Wesley Rawles recently posted on AxXiom for Liberty some very disturbing trends in law enforcement training. He reports a shift in focus in the last 18 years from local community to a "federally dominated model of complete social control" coming out of, not surprisingly, Homeland Security. More specifically, the long-reaching DHS arms of TSA and FEMA have been pushed heavily in the last two years to local law enforcement.

Rawles notes that regardless to training session topics, the courses shift to domestic terrorist warnings in the community. That is not abnormal, but the wide scope of what our government describes as having the most potential to be domestic terrorists is highly alarming.

Rawles writes that the following are characteristics that qualifies a person as a potential domestic terrorist:

•   Expressions of libertarian philosophies (statements, bumper stickers)
•   Second Amendment-oriented views (NRA or gun club membership, holding a CCW permit)
•   Survivalist literature (fictional books such as "Patriots" and "One Second After" are mentioned by name)
•   Self-sufficiency (stockpiling food, ammo, hand tools, medical supplies)
•   Fear of economic collapse (buying gold and barter items)
•   Religious views concerning the book of Revelation (apocalypse, anti-Christ)
•   Expressed fears of Big Brother or big government
•   Homeschooling
•   Declarations of Constitutional rights and civil liberties
•   Belief in a New World Order conspiracy

People engaged in the above activities or mind-set may be considered "extremists" or "militia groups" that exist in our communities and are "hiding in plain sight, ready to attack."

We've looked before at suspicious activity reports (SAR database) and fusion centers that keep info on supposedly "suspicious" people, keeping watchlists that can be accessed by local law enforcement and other government agencies. Domestic surveillance seems out of control and ACLU's Policy Counsel on National Security, Immigration and Privacy, Mike German, has said as much: "The most disturbing thing we've uncovered is the scope of domestic intelligence activities taking place today. Domestic spying is now being done by a host of federal agencies (FBI, DOD, DHS, DNI) as well as state and local law enforcement and even private companies. Too often this spying targets political activity and religious practices. We've documented intelligence activities targeting or obstructing First Amendment-protected activity in 33 states and DC."

I'm sure none of us want terrorists in our country. Although there may be domestic terrorists inside the USA, why don't we actually hear about these groups? Could it be that all the warnings of how there are such a high risks for terrorism inside the U.S. might be because there are these utterly ridiculous lists of what qualifies as potential terrorists?

I strongly disagree that We the People of the USA, the land of free, are a wildly dangerous group. In fact, I don't think terrorists are lurking everywhere in America, waiting to attack. I believe, it is because we love America that we talk about and write about the worrisome facts of our great country becoming the land of surveillance and distrust, the place where neighbors are encouraged to report neighbors, and where local law enforcement is being told to be on the lookout for terrorists lurking all over their communities.

Sullivan Ballou's Letter to His Wife

http://www.pbs.org/civilwar/war/ballou_letter.html

Sullivan Ballou's Letter To His Wife

This striking historical letter from a man to his wife during the Civil War is both moving and inspirational.  It displays the courage, dedication, love, and beauty of the written word our forefathers possessed.  I seriously question if our current society could speak with this depth, stand for a cause with such fearlessness, and love with this much conviction.  Beautiful.

July 14, 1861
Camp Clark, Washington

My very dear Sarah:
The indications are very strong that we shall move in a few days—perhaps tomorrow. Lest I should not be able to write again, I feel impelled to write a few lines that may fall under your eye when I shall be no more . . .

I have no misgivings about, or lack of confidence in the cause in which I am engaged, and my courage does not halt or falter. I know how strongly American Civilization now leans on the triumph of the Government and how great a debt we owe to those who went before us through the blood and sufferings of the Revolution. And I am willing—perfectly willing—to lay down all my joys in this life, to help maintain this Government, and to pay that debt . . .

Sarah my love for you is deathless, it seems to bind me with mighty cables that nothing but Omnipotence could break; and yet my love of Country comes over me like a strong wind and bears me unresistibly on with all these chains to the battle field.

The memories of the blissful moments I have spent with you come creeping over me, and I feel most gratified to God and to you that I have enjoyed them for so long. And hard it is for me to give them up and burn to ashes the hopes of future years, when, God willing, we might still have lived and loved together, and seen our sons grown up to honorable manhood, around us. I have, I know, but few and small claims upon Divine Providence, but something whispers to me—perhaps it is the wafted prayer of my little Edgar, that I shall return to my loved ones unharmed. If I do not my dear Sarah, never forget how much I love you, and when my last breath escapes me on the battle field, it will whisper your name. Forgive my many faults and the many pains I have caused you. How thoughtless and foolish I have often times been! How gladly would I wash out with my tears every little spot upon your happiness . . .

But, O Sarah! If the dead can come back to this earth and flit unseen around those they loved, I shall always be near you; in the gladdest days and in the darkest nights . . . always, always, and if there be a soft breeze upon your cheek, it shall be my breath, as the cool air fans your throbbing temple, it shall be my spirit passing by. Sarah do not mourn me dead; think I am gone and wait for thee, for we shall meet again . . .

Sullivan Ballou was killed a week later at the first Battle of Bull Run, July 21, 1861.

The Two Party System

Two Party Political System

            The political system within the United States government has always been a two party system. According to our text from 1788-1824 the two parties vying for power were the Federalist and Democratic Republican parties, from 1828-1854 the Democrats and the Whigs were the two major parties, and from 1896 to present day the two major political parties have been the Republicans and the Democrats.[1] It is my opinion that this selfish power sharing relationship that our two political parties exude has been the catalyst to our country’s current situation. 

In the Federalist Papers #10 James Madison proclaims “complaints are everywhere…that our governments are too unstable, that the public good is disregarded in the conflicts of rival parties”.[2] This is evidence that even in the early days of this government’s history; the founders of this country were aware of and wrote about the flaws of a two party system. So why is it that more than two hundred years later we as a country have not fixed this problem? It seems that even today anything that the majority party in the legislative branch and the executive branch puts forth as policy or legislation will eventually be changed back or overturned when the minority party becomes the majority. The recent Health Care Plan is the most current example of our political parties’ ability to bastardize our political system. Another example of our two party system spinning its wheels and going nowhere could be the fact that our countries economic plan changes with every new administration thus not allowing our progress or investments as a nation to grow exponentially as China has witnessed with their 25 year economic plans.

Why is it that voters only have two parties to identify with? This is because the election process is set up so that it is either a republican or democrat that will be elected and no-one else. The two political parties increase their odds of winning if they block and make difficult for other parties to be involved in the process; especially in a time when polls of the 1990’s show that only 8% of voters feel that the candidate’s party affiliation matters.[3]

 

What is the answer? It is obvious that only half of Americans are represented by the two combined political parties. Where are the representatives for the Libertarians and Populists? Although it is hard to tell the difference during election time: Democrats favor a big government hand in the economy and little government involvement in our private lives, Republicans believe in the government being involved in our private lives and want little to no government involvement in the economy. Where are the Populists that want big government in our economy and big government involvement in our private lives? Where are the Libertarians who want very little government involvement in our private lives and the economy? Where are the Green Party members during debate time? Why are the Independents when it comes time to cast a ballot?  Touching on this, James Madison writes ”a zeal for different opinions concerning religion, concerning government, and many other points, as well of speculation as of practice; an attachment to different leaders ambitiously contending for pre-eminence and power; or to persons of other descriptions whose fortunes have been interesting to the human passions, have, in turn, divided mankind into parties, inflamed them with mutual animosity, and rendered them much more disposed to vex and oppress each other than to co-operate for their common good”.[4] So our country will just sit here and not progress until we can reverse what James Madison over 200 years ago said would happen.

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[1] John F. Bibby and Brian F. Schaffner, Politics, Parties, and Elections in America 6^th ed. (Mass: Thomson Wadsworth, 2008), 22.

[2] James Madison, “The Union as a Safeguard Against Domestic Faction and Insurrection” Federalist Papers #10, (New York Packet, 1787), (accessed 2/16/11) http://www.foundingfathers.info/federalistpapers/fedindex.htm

[3] John F. Bibby and Brian F. Schaffner, Politics, Parties, and Elections in America 6^th ed. (Mass: Thomson Wadsworth, 2008), 20.

[4] James Madison, “The Union as a Safeguard Against Domestic Faction and Insurrection” Federalist Papers #10, (New York Packet, 1787), (accessed 2/16/11) http://www.foundingfathers.info/federalistpapers/fedindex.htm